The Maths Of Predicting
Category : Blog
Football predictions require you to let your mind back to your school days, and you may remember learning about the Poisson distribution in mathematics education. If your memory is really good, you might even forget that the Poisson distribution is a good way of modelling situations with a number of independent random events in a given period of time or do not arise. Certain conditions are required for the Poisson to be applicable.
The variable cannot be a negative number or a fraction; the events should be separate and independent of each other; they should be equally likely to occur in each period; and random events should also be rare. If you have not yet settled, you will have noticed that this description, objectives during a football game. Objectives (events) occur in a 90-minute period at random and rare.
For example, if you know how to bet on the number of goals in a game, and that the average number of goals per game, are two, then the Poisson distribution will provide a very tight fit and allow you to calculating probabilities of the various grades. If, on the other hand, you were betting on a basketball game in which scoring is more common, the Poisson distribution would not apply.
Simply put, if you know that a team scores 1.2 goals per game on average, according to the Poisson, the same team has a 30 percent chance of not achieved in a particular game. There are tables similar Poisson probabilities in the annexes of your old math textbooks (if you made the effort, they will dig up), but it would not be wise using them. With the help of an Excel spreadsheet is much easier to do these calculations. It has built a Poisson function and is very easy to install. Just read the manual feed into the central goals for each team and let the computer do the work. These are some important tips regarding football predictions.